MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins, April 16

A surprising turn of events in last night’s over/under, as the Seattle Mariners pulled off the rare feat of striking a left-hander — and a good one at that. We’re still vying for the first win of the week, and hopefully that comes on this Winsday evening in South Beach.

It is there where the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins will play the sandwich tilt of their three-game set. A battle of talented young right-handers is on the billing after the D-backs claimed the series opener in a rout.

One of those starters is arguably the best of his club’s rotation right now — and I say that even with the utmost affection for Sandy Alcantara. Yes, a legitimate argument could be made that 26-year-old Max Meyer is the cream of the Marlins’ crop at this moment, and the work he’s displayed thus far in 2025 justifies such a belief.

Meyer is coming off probably the best outing of his career — in our under victory last Wednesday — stifling the Mets across six-plus shutout innings and scattering only two hits and two walks. This assignment was a huge stride in the career of Meyer, representing the first time he strung together a scoreless start (not including his second MLB assignment three years ago when he exited in the first due to injury).

The 2020 No. 3 overall draft pick is off to a sensational start this season, having allowed only four combined runs across his three turns. He’s also produced a nifty 19-to-5 K/BB ratio in those 18 innings of work while yielding only a single homer.

Clearly, Meyer’s breakout is here — and it’s a good idea to ride him while he’s emerging. As I detailed before his game last week, this is someone who was already in the process of lifting off a year ago with a fabulous April, before the Marlins curiously sent him down to manage his workload (to be fair, it was following his return from Tommy John surgery).

Something that could greatly help Meyer in his efforts is the fact that Ketel Marte (hamstring) is presently sidelined on the injured list. While Arizona still has a decent amount of ammo in its lineup, this is a big blow given that Marte is maybe their top overall offensive player. He did finish third in the National League MVP voting last season, remember.

Marte’s absence has been noticeable. In the Diamondbacks’ first eight contests of the year before his absence, they were averaging 6.4 runs per game. In the nine games since, that scoring output has dipped nearly two full runs.

Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaadt gets the ball for the road side. After being a popular sleeper pick by analysts and fans alike, the third-year right-hander has come through on those prognostications by being a quality start machine. If not for a two-out, sixth-inning solo home run in his second outing, Pfaadt would have three quality starts to his name to commence the campaign.

The Louisville, Kentucky, native has gone exactly six innings apiece in all of his assignments thus far and looked solid each time out. Of note, he’s registered an impressive 1.06 WHIP, which would easily best his career-best mark from last year (1.24) if it stays around there. Furthermore, his batting average against (.242) is considerably lower than it’s been in any of his other major league seasons.

Tonight’s date brings Pfaadt a matchup against one of the weakest lineups around. While Miami has been scoring a bit more than expected in the early going (4.3 runs per game), the fact remains they’ve resided in the bottom five of baseball in runs scored in each of the past four seasons. I don’t expect the Fish to continue surging with what they have penned on the lineup card daily.

Even though this is already a higher-than-usual total for a game emanating from loanDepot park, I still suggest moving onto the all-important number of 9 by acquiring half a run.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-135, bet365)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 10-9-1, -0.38 unit
Over/Unders: 9-7-1
Props: 1-1
MLs: 0-1

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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