MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels, April 4

Interesting defeat last night that saw the Cincinnati Reds lose by a score of 1-0 for the third consecutive day. This further confirms it’s only best to stick to over/unders.

And that’s what we’ll be back on tonight when the Los Angeles Angels become the last team in baseball to host their home opener. They’ll get the Cleveland Guardians first out of the chute at the Big A.

A starting pitching matchup of 2025 breakout candidates will begin the proceedings. If you checked out our guide of season futures prop bets, you know I’m personally very high (and invested) on Gavin Williams now that he’s fully healthy.

The former first-round draft pick endured elbow issues last spring training that ultimately knocked him out the first half of last year. Even after returning, Williams just didn’t look quite right and was saddled with a 3-10 record and 4.86 ERA by the time the campaign concluded.

Williams is back to form now, however — and that should lead people to see what he can do as he evolves into a frontline starter.

The first assignment of the new season for the 25-year-old was certainly an encouraging one, as he limited the division rival Royals to just two runs on four hits and a walk across five solid innings. Williams struck out only two, but his K rate will unquestionably inflate as the weeks go by. He’s strung together more than a strikeout per inning through the first two years of his career.

Furthermore, Williams showed off his penchant for punchouts during spring training, when he registered an eye-opening 13.5 K/9 in 17 1/3 innings. Perhaps he’s in a good spot to continue such mastery, given that none of the Halos regulars have ever logged a regular-season at-bat against Williams. He saw them during the spring, but Logan O’Hoppe and Jo Adell were the only players of note to step in the box.

That unfamiliarity factor won’t be in play for the counterpart, José Soriano, who faced the Guardians twice last year — his first as a starting pitcher at the big-league level.

Soriano was effective in both those outings, totaling 12 innings and yielding less than a baserunner per frame. He allowed four runs combined and compiled 11 strikeouts.

The Dominican Republic native has the potential to do that against anybody and — like Williams — is off to a nice start in the new season. Sure, the lowly White Sox were his first foe, but the fact remains he carved them at will, en route to notching seven shutout innings while allowing a mere four baserunners.

Soriano’s next opponent may also aid in another nice showing. The Guardians are off to a weak start offensively, scoring three or fewer runs in four of their first six games. They’re coming off a three-game road sweep at the hands of the Padres that saw them plate only four runs combined.

At least one of the two starters figures to come through with a strong effort. Given the trajectory of both, I anticipate the pitching will dictate a lower-scoring affair tonight.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-112, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Over/Under Record: 5-3-1, +1.65 units
Over/Unders: 4-2-1
Props: 1-0
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Reds ML vs. Brewers (loss)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.